Modelling for Effective Prevention Programmes

The modelling activities within SHIELD aim to evaluate and inform national HPV, HBV, HCV, HIV and TB prevention programmes at different levels of progress towards disease elimination. This includes evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of different screening and vaccination strategies through development of a framework for cost-effectiveness modelling. It also aims to develop a multi-disease framework with ability to evaluate packages of interventions focusing on more than one infection and provide comparable outputs across diseases to support national decision-making.

Objectives

Modellers across the work packages have formed an expert working group, bringing modelling activities and expertise together under a unified structure, enabling cross-cutting innovation, strengthening collaboration, and accelerating the translation of insights across the programme. The final list of topics to be explored through modelling were agreed on in consultation with SHIELD partners, based on expressed policy dilemmas requiring modelling but needed to be addressed to achieve infection control and prevent cancers caused by HPV, HBV, HCV, HIV and TB – guided by the Council Recommendations on vaccine-preventable cancers.

Leads

The Work Package leads are the Capital Region of Denmark (RH/CHIP) – Denmark, the Inserm IAME unit – France, the Amsterdam Universitair Medisch Centrum (AUMC) – Netherlands and the Imperial College London – UK.

  1. 1.
    Develop modelling frameworks to support national prevention programmes across HPV, HBV, HCV, HIV, and TB
  2. 2.
    Assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination strategies, including for vulnerable groups
  3. 3.
    Enable multi-disease modelling approaches to evaluate combined interventions and support integrated decision-making
  4. 4.
    Strengthen collaboration and expertise through a joint modelling network addressing key policy challenges